مجله علوم آبزی پروری

مجله علوم آبزی پروری

تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تنوع بتا گونه‌ ماهیان آب شیرین حوضه دریای خزر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه شیلات، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.
چکیده
تنوع بتا، یک شاخص تنوع زیستی است که تفاوت گونه‌ای زیستگاه‌های مختلف را توصیف می‌کند. تغییرات اقلیمی با تأثیر مستقیم و غیرمستقیم خود این تنوع را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهند. گونه‌های پژوهش حاضر از رودخانه‌های حوضه خزر نمونه‌برداری شدند. 19 متغیر زیست‌اقلیمی (سال 2000 تا 2021) از سایت worldclim به‌دست آمدند. کلیه عملیات برازش داده‌ها با توابع برنامه R انجام گرفت. هم‌خطی متغیرها با همبستگی پیرسون و تابع findCorrelation در بسته caret بررسی شد. محاسبه تنوع بتا زمان حال با ماتریس نامشابهت جاکارد و پکیج adespatial و رج‌بندی پارامترهای زیست‌اقلیمی و تنوع بتا با آنالیز افزونگی (RDA) و پکیج vegan انجام شد. تبدیل مختصات حضور گونه‌ها به داده‌های صفر و یک از طریق ماتریس وزن‌دهی فضایی (SWM) با تابع gabrielneigh انجام گردید. انتخاب بهترین GCM برای پیش‌بینی پارامترهای اقلیمی آینده از طریق برنامه تحت وب GCMeval انجام گردید. حضور ماهی‌ها در آینده با توزیع گونه‌های مشترک (JSDM) مدل‌سازی شد. داده‌های پیوسته احتمال حضور آینده، آستانه‌سازی و داده‌های صفر و یک ایجاد شده برای پیش‌بینی تنوع بتا آینده استفاده شدند. در نهایت تنوع بتا آینده تحت سه سناریو ssp126 (خوش‌بینانه)، ssp245 (میانی) و ssp585 (بدبینانه) در سه دوره زمانی از 2021 تا 2080 به‌دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که وضعیت فعلی تنوع بتا در حوضه خزر نامطلوب بوده و روند کاهشی آن در آینده ادامه دارد. اثر پارامترهای زیست‌اقلیمی بر تنوع بتا معنی‌دار نبود و احتمالاً عوامل دیگری در آن تأثیرگذار بوده است. وضعیت نامناسب تنوع بتا این حوضه لزوم سیاست‌های حفاظتی و مدیریت پایدار منابع را برجسته می‌سازد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The effect of climate change on the Beta diversity of freshwater fish species in the Caspian Sea basin

نویسندگان English

Zahra Mehrabani
Soheil Eagderi
Hadi Poorbagher
Department of Fisheries, Faculty of Natural Resources, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده English

Beta diversity is a biodiversity index that describes the species differences among habitats. Climate change influences that, directly and indirectly. In the present research, the studied species were sampled from rivers in the Caspian Sea Basin. 19 bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim website (from 2000 to 2021). All operations were performed using R functions. Correlation variables were examined with Pearson correlation and the findCorrelation function in the caret package. Present beta diversity was calculated using the Jaccard dissimilarity matrix and the adespatial package. The bioclimatic variables and beta diversity were ordinated with Redundancy analysis (RDA) and the vegan package. Presence-absence data were converted using the Spatial Weighting Matrix (SWM) and gabrielneigh function. The best GCM for predicting future climatic parameters was selected through the web-based program GCMeval. The presence of fish in the future was modeled using the Joint Species Distribution Modelling (JSDM). Continuous data of future presence was given a threshold. Presence-absence data were used for predicting future beta diversity. Finally, future beta diversity was estimated for three scenarios: ssp126 (optimistic), ssp245 (moderate), and ssp585 (pessimistic), across three periods from 2021 to 2080. The results showed that the current state of beta diversity in the Caspian Sea Basin is unfavorable, and its declining trend will continue. The effects of bioclimatic parameters on the beta diversity were not significant, suggesting that other factors may influence it. The poor beta diversity underscores the need for effective conservation policies and sustainable management of natural resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Beta diversity
Caspian Sea basin
Freshwater fishes
Climate change
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