Predicting effects of climate change on Beluga (Huso huso Linnaeus, 1754) migration in the rivers of the southern part of the Caspian Sea basin

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Remote Sensing and GIS Centre, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Beluga is one of the most valuable commercial fishery species, and due to water pollution, hydrological changes in rivers, overfishing, and barriers to reach spawning habitats, this species has been categorized as Critically Endangered (CR) by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Given that the climate change is occurring, new and intensive challenges for aquatic ecosystems and their habitats will create as a result of this phenomenon. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on this species distribution in the future. In this regard, using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) and MaxEnt, the distribution of Beluga was predicted under optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios in two-time scales (2050 and 2080 AD) in the rivers of the southern part of the Caspian Sea basin. In addition, the environmental variables used include maximum river width, elevation, slope, average precipitation, average annual temperature, temperature difference between the coldest and hottest months of the year, and the basins were occupied by species. On the basis of AUC (Area Under the Curve), the model performance in predicting the distribution of the species was assessed high (0.96). Based on the modeling results, climate change will cause no change in the species' suitable habitats in all scenarios. Therefore, if the current problems do not eliminate this species from its habitats, the probability of its resistance to climate change is high fortunately.

Keywords

Aquaculture Sciences
Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
September 2020
Pages 15-23

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